Kazajstán – FutureWater

El Yesil, también conocido como Esil o Ishim, drena una cuenca en la que predomina el deshielo en el norte de Kazajistán. La crecida primaveral llega con rapidez y es muy intensa, ya que la columna de suelo aún está congelada cuando comienza el deshielo. En marzo y abril de 2024, la cuenca provocó las peores inundaciones de Kazajistán en unos ochenta años, desbordando los embalses situados aguas abajo y obligando a realizar evacuaciones en Petropávlovsk. Esos sucesos constituyen la referencia con la que se evalúa la contribución del nuevo proyecto a la reducción del riesgo de inundaciones.

El Proyecto Integrado de Soluciones para la Cuenca Fluvial y las Infraestructuras del Yesil responde con un contrarregulador de tierra compactada de 23 metros situado aguas arriba de Kurskoye, que reajusta el caudal de un río que ya está embalsado más arriba. Fuera de la temporada de crecidas, la estructura funciona como un embalse de retención en seco, de modo que se dispone de capacidad de almacenamiento al inicio del deshielo para interceptar y retrasar el flujo de deshielo antes de que alcance la cascada de embalses aguas abajo. La vida útil prevista es de 30 años. El Banco Asiático de Desarrollo clasifica el proyecto como directamente expuesto al riesgo climático, lo que exige una diligencia debida climática antes de la inversión.

FutureWater lleva a cabo la evaluación del riesgo climático y la adaptación. La evaluación determina el clima observado en la cuenca a partir del reanálisis ERA5-Land y el clima proyectado a partir de un conjunto de simulaciones CMIP6 bajo una trayectoria de emisiones moderada y otra elevada, y analiza lo que ambas implican para la capa de nieve, el momento del deshielo y la magnitud de las crecidas en el eje de la presa.

Su alcance abarca la crecida de diseño y la base de frecuencia de crecidas sobre la que se dimensiona la estructura, el trazado del embalse y el margen libre, las normas de funcionamiento para la retención y el vertido, y el seguimiento necesario para gestionar los aspectos que siguen siendo inciertos. Se identifican medidas de adaptación para cada riesgo significativo y se estructuran de manera que puedan integrarse en el diseño, los planes de explotación y el análisis de seguridad de la presa del proyecto.

FutureWater también elabora la evaluación del cambio climático que respalda la alineación del proyecto con el Acuerdo de París y su categorización en materia de financiación climática, y aporta información sobre los riesgos climáticos y la adaptación a la documentación del proyecto del Banco Asiático de Desarrollo.

The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program is a partnership of 11 countries from Central Asia, South Asia, the Caucasus, as well as Mongolia and the People’s Republic of China and works to increase regional cooperation to help the region shift to low carbon development pathways and build resilience against climate induced hazards. ADB hosts the CAREC secretariat and helps to facilitate projects that deliver regional benefits.

In 2017, CAREC introduced agriculture and water as a new pillar under the CAREC 2030 strategy to provide a conducive and trusted platform to foster regional cooperation and integration on water security. The water pillar was established in 2020 and its scope was devised in 2022. Since then, a number of activities and consultations with CAREC countries have been undertaken including provision of a long list of potential regional projects that could be financed by ADB.

In this project prefeasibility studies will be conducted for three selected priority projects:

Climate change adaptation through improving irrigation efficiency in the Aral Sea Basin
Climate Resiliency of Bakhri Tojik reservoir for improved irrigation and energy supply
Joint Automated Water Metering System in the Aral Sea Basin

The prefeasibility studies entail:

Technical, financial, economic, poverty and social analysis.
Environment, social, and indigenous people’s safeguards assessments.
Climate change assessments.
Financial management and procurement capacity assessments; and
Institutional set-up and project implementation arrangements.

For these prefeasibility studies FutureWater conducts the climate risk assessment.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is considering supporting the (re)construction of four wastewater treatment plants in Stepnogorsk, Satpaev, Zhezkazgan, and Balkhash. Detailed engineering designs are being prepared by designers recruited by Vodokanals. Climate change impacts may exacerbate environmental pollution and other adverse effects of aging infrastructure on service delivery. FutureWater conducted a Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) to ensure that climate impacts are fully considered in the detailed design and construction phases.

The CRA identified the main vulnerability components for the four proposed wastewater treatment plants as: (i) extreme precipitation leading to stormwater runoff, (ii) low flows causing water quality problems, (iii) flooding of infrastructure (both fluvial and pluvial), (iv) power supply outages, and (v) heat stress. FutureWater’s risk assessment, which considered the combined effects of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, concluded that all five major identified risks require attention. Since the draft designs already account for the current extreme climate conditions, and due to relatively modest projected climate changes (temperature, precipitation, wind), the need for additional adaptation measures will be relatively modest.

FutureWater’s assessment contributed to ensuring that the four wastewater treatment plants will be climate-resilient, thereby securing the investment.

The project prepares robust climate mitigation and adaptation pipelines aligned with the Paris Agreement and responsive to DMCs climate change priorities. The TA will support interventions on departmental, sectoral and country levels with key activities including development of a regional strategy, upstream climate assessments, climate pipeline development, government dialogues and capacity building. As part of this project, FutureWater conducts a regional climate risk assessment for ten countries. This includes an assessment of baseline and future climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability and addressing sectoral impacts and adaptation options for a wide range of sectors. In addition country profiles summarizing climate risks for the ten countries are generated. The reginal climate risk assessment feeds into the climate strategy.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) is supporting the Government of Kazakhstan in it’s “Wastewater Treatment Plants Reconstruction and Construction Program”. The overall aim is to improve the wastewater treatment facilities in the 53 cities across Kazakhstan. The Program will be implemented through a phased approach. During the first phase five Wastewater Treatment Plants in Stepnogorsk, Zhezkazgan, Satpayev, Balkhash and Zhanatas are to be financed by ADB.

FutureWater has undertaken a climate risk and adaptation analysis for those facilities. FutureWater has extended and updated a previous climate risk assessment (CRA). The original CRA was based on the CMIP3 projections and only some selected climate models were used. FutureWater has updated the original CRA by using downscaled CMIP5 projections (NASA-NEX) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and the full range of climate models. Also adaptation strategies were refined.

Results show that the key climate risks includes a projected increase in mean annual temperature for all five waste water treatment plants and hottest day temperature are in the same range. Those higher temperatures might negatively affect operations and efficiencies of the plants. Mean annual precipitation is projected to increase for all five treatment plants. Potential risk of flooding of the infrastructure or large influx of storm water is determined by wettest day precipitation. An increase in wettest day precipitation is projected to be between 6% to 14%. Zhanatas and Stepnogorsk waste water treatment plants are most vulnerable regarding the risk of increased severity and frequency of floods.

Adaptation interventions to those projected climate changes are explored in the initial environmental examination (IEE) and will be further developed during the detailed design phase. The following broad adaptation options are foreseen:

selection of sites less prone to flooding for the two new WWTP,
flood protection of the three WWTP to be rehabilitated,
selection of sewerage technology that will function under higher temperatures,
awareness raising of staff, and
monitoring to avoid sewer overflows during storm events.

Recently, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program introduced agriculture and water as a new cluster in its strategic framework. Recognizing the complexities of the water sector and the existing landscape of cooperation activities, the strategic framework proposes a complementary approach that uses the strengths of CAREC to further promote dialogue on water issues. A scoping study was commissioned, supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), to develop a framework for the Water Pillar for further consideration by the governing bodies of CAREC. It was agreed that the initial focus of the Water Pillar should be on the five Central Asian states with consideration given to expanding to other CAREC member countries over time.

The objective of the study is to develop the scope of a Water Pillar Framework that includes a roadmap of national development interventions for each of the five Central Asian Republics that responds to the prevailing challenges and opportunities in water resources management.

The framework will be derived from three specific outputs:

Output 1: Projection of future availability and demand for water resources for the Central Asia region up to 2050 including implications of climate change.
Output 2: Identification of future water resources development and management opportunities in the form of a sector specific framework for water resources infrastructure taking into consideration sustainability issues through a comparative assessment of cost recovery mechanisms and operation and maintenance (O&M) practices.
Output 3: Preparation of a framework for policy and institutional strengthening that addresses common themes and issues related to national water resources legislation and the capacity and knowledge development needs of water resources agencies with an emphasis on economic aspects and sustainable financing.

For this work, FutureWater provides key inputs on the climate change and water resources aspects, including desk review, stakeholder consultations across the five regions and across all sectors, and analysis of climate change risks and identification of adaptation options that have a regional dimension and can be taken up through regional or bilateral cooperation. Following the scoping study, FutureWater supports in the identification of priority activities based on an extensive consultative process in the region, with emphasis on climate resilience. Also it supports the identification of potential water pillar development partners and financing opportunities, including steps needed to qualify for climate finance.

The SREB is part of the Belt and Road Initiative, being a development strategy that focuses on connectivity and cooperation between Eurasian countries. Essentially, the SREB includes countries situated on the original Silk Road through Central Asia, West Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. The initiative calls for the integration of the region into a cohesive economic area through building infrastructure, increasing cultural exchanges, and broadening trade. A major part of the SREB traverses Asia’s high-altitude areas, also referred to as the Third Pole or the Asian Water Tower. In the light of the planned development for the SREB traversing the Third Pole and its immediate surroundings, the “Pan-Third Pole Environment study for a Green Silk Road (Pan-TPE)” program will be implemented.

The project will assess the state and fate of water resources in the region under following research themes:

1. Observed and projected Pan-TPE climate change
2. Impacts on the present and future Water Tower of Asia
3. The Green Silk Road and changes in water demand
4. Adaptation for green development

A detailed Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) report has been developed. The main findings of the CRVA are:

In terms of climate change observations over the last 60 years:

The average annual temperature in Kazakhstan has been rising by 0.3 ºC/decade. The rate of warming is more pronounced during spring / autumn
Increase in annual mean temperatures is most pronounced in Aktobe and Kyzlorda oblasts and least in East Kazakhstan.
The length of dry spells has increased over conterminous Kazakhstan concurrently with observed increasing trends in precipitation intensity.
In Kazakhstan precipitation tends to slightly decrease of 1 mm per decade in all seasons except winter when precipitation tends to increase by 2 mm per decade.

In terms of climate change projections for the coming decades:

Mean annual temperatures are projected to increase by 2.5°C by the 2020s, 4.5°C by the 2050s and 7.0°C by the 2080s under RCP 8.5 concentration pathway.
A significant increase in precipitation of about 24% during the winter by the end of this century. However, during the summer season, a decline of -13% in precipitation is projected.

In terms of impact of climate change:

Higher crop water requirements of about 8-10% by 2020 and 15% by 2050 compared to the reference (1990).
Seasonal shift with earlier planting opportunities and therefore irrigation demands earlier in the season.
Substantial reduction in runoff to streams and rivers as a result of higher evaporation rates and precipitation reductions.
Higher flooding risks due to projected extremes in daily rainfall, especially in the more mountainous regions.
Falling groundwater tables as a result of lower recharge.

In terms of adaptation of climate change:

Design crop water requirements at 10-15% higher compared to the 1990 climate data. Design criteria for canals should also be 10-15% higher.
Design of storage capacity should be substantially higher to compensate for the projected decrease in base flows and increase in demand. Exact numbers should be Sub-Project and Project level determined.
Awareness raising to farmers is needed to make them aware that changes in climate will influence water delivery and will gradually lead to a change in cropping patterns and farm water management.

Example of changes in irrigated areas based on Landsat satellite data using maximum NDVI values over 5 years. Location is just north-west of Aktobe town.

Water resources management in the Central Asia region faces big challenges. The hydrological regimes of the two major rivers in the region, the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, are complex and vulnerable to climate change. Water diversions to agricultural, industrial and domestic users have reduced flows in downstream regions, resulting in severe ecological damages. The administrative-institutional system is fragmented, with six independent countries sharing control, often with contradicting objectives.

Under the leadership of the Finnish Consulting Group and in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute, FutureWater develops hydrological models to assess the water resources availability in the region under climate change. The project focuses on the Aral Sea basin (Pamir and Tien Shan mountains) in Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Hydrological models are developed for the Amu Darya and Syr Darya and include several climate change impact scenarios. The project develops national capacity in each of the participating countries to use the models to prepare climate change impact scenarios and develop adaptation strategies. This will then result in improved national strategies for climate change adaptation. We collaborate closely with the main regional and national organizations responsible for land and water management.

The energy sector is sensitive to changes in seasonal weather patterns and extremes that can affect the supply of energy, harm transmission capacity, disrupt oil and gas production, and impact the integrity of transmission pipelines and power distribution. Most infrastructure has been built to design codes based on historic climate data and will require rehabilitation, upgrade or replacement in the coming years. This poses both a challenge and an opportunity for adaptation. Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world. Expected climate impacts range from increased temperature (across the region), changes in precipitation and snow, greater extreme weather events, aridisation and desertification, health, and changes in water resources.

Energy and water are closely interrelated as water is used to generate energy (hydropower, cooling of thermal plants) but energy is also required to fulfil water needs (e.g. pumping, water treatment, desalination). Especially in Central Asia, meeting daily energy needs depends to a large extent on water. Guaranteeing sufficient water resources for energy production, and appropriately allocating the limited supply, is becoming increasingly difficult. As the region’s population keeps on growing, competing demand for water from other sectors is expected to grow, potentially exacerbating the issue.

The World Bank is committed to working with the governments of Central Asia to undertake analysis and to identify priorities in adaptation to climate change, including strengthening regional trade through a rigorous, transparent region-scale study. Therefore it currently undertakes a regional assessment to identify areas of possible coordination and possible transboundary impact. The overall project objective is to contribute to a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities for effective joint management of climate adaptation, contributing to the objective of the World Bank’s Central Asia strategy of energy and water security through enhanced cooperation. The results of this assessment should guide current and future decision-makers on options for investments in and management of power generation and transmission/distribution assets through enhanced cooperation.

The objective of this study is to support the “Central Asia Regional Energy Sector Vulnerability Study” led by Industrial Economics (IEc) and funded by the World Bank, by carrying out an expanded risk assessment for water availability and water related energy sector impacts in the region. The work will build on the existing tools developed previously for Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins. Various necessary extensions and enhancements of the tools will be made to include the latest understanding of climatological and hydrological processes and include the latest planned investments in hydropower facilities and cooling water abstractions of the thermal power plants in the region.