The WEAP model simulates water availability, supply, and demand on a small scale for over 40 irrigation, domestic, and industrial sites, running on a daily timestep to include detailed reservoir operations and water use abstractions. The updated WEAP model was co-designed together with ARA-Sul, the regional water authorities of southern Mozambique. Monthly meetings were held to support information sharing and co-ownership throughout the project.
The model will aid ARA-Sul in water accounting and the licensing of water users served by the Pequenos Libombos Reservoir. The Pequenos Libombos Reservoir, with a storage capacity of 350 MCM, is the main water supplier to the Maputo Metropolitan Area inhabited by over 3 million people. In June 2024 sessions were held in The Netherlands were ARA-Sul was trained in the usage of the model.
The cover picture was taken by David Mucambe (ARA-Sul).
La mayoría de las investigaciones recientes se han centrado en la identificación de episodios históricos basados en paleoregistros y la comprensión de sus causas climáticas, o en el estudio de megasequías “modernas” y sus impactos, generalmente en cuencas bajas y llanuras. Sin embargo, las cuencas de montaña han sido poco estudiadas y poco se sabe sobre el impacto de las megasequías en el estado y dinámica de la criosfera o torres de agua de montaña. Las cuencas vertientes dependientes de sistemas de alta montaña disponen de una capacidad para amortiguar la falta de precipitaciones y exceso de evapotranspiración que depende de las reservas de agua proporcionadas por la criosfera (nieve, glaciares y permafrost). Se presume, que la capacidad de amortiguación es limitada hasta alcanzar un punto de inflexión donde los impactos de la falta de agua y temperaturas extremas pueden verse amplificados y poner en peligro el funcionamiento del ecosistema hídrico.
MegaWat tiene un doble objetivo: 1) abordar las lagunas de conocimiento entorno a las causas hidroclimáticas de las sequías extremas y su impacto en el balance del agua de las torres de agua de montaña de Europa, haciendo especial énfasis en la concurrencia de eventos compuestos y los efectos en cascada y multiescala, y 2) desarrollar y proponer nuevas estrategias de adaptación para hacer frente a la duración, extensión e intensidad de futuras megasequías y sus impactos ambientales y socioeconómicos.
Para su implementación, MegaWat se centra en los sistemas de alta montaña de Europa y sus cuencas vertientes. MegaWat ambiciona el desarrollo de tres productos:
Producto 1. Marco metodológico para la identificación y caracterización de megasequías históricas durante el periodo instrumental, y la evaluación del papel que juega la criosfera en la amortiguación de los impactos del cambio climático y el desarrollo territorial en las cuencas vertientes. El producto 1 descansa en la combinación de herramientas de regionalización climática, modelización del balance de energía en superficie, simulación hidrológica, y códigos de evaluación y asignación optimización de recursos hídricos.
Producto 2. Base de datos climática regionalizada de alta resolución y de acceso libre.
Producto 3. Listado de estrategias de adaptación para la prevención y amortiguación de impactos, y el aumento de la seguridad hídrica y resiliencia de cuencas de alta montaña. Estos escenarios serán consensuados con agentes locales y partes interesadas, y su efectividad se evaluarán bajo escenarios extremos, no antes descritos pero plausibles, en tres cuencas piloto de alta montaña previamente seleccionadas por su representatividad, importancia estratégica y vulnerabilidad a las sequías.
En MegaWater, FutureWater coordina el paquete de trabajo para el desarrollo e implementación de herramientas de soporte a la decisión y adaptación a megasequías, incluyendo la organización de actividades con actores locales y partes interesadas para la priorización de intervenciones y puesta en común de resultados. El paquete de trabajo se organiza a través de dos actividades específicas: a) el desarrollo de un prototipo metodológico para cuantificación de impactos en cuencas vertientes y la identificación de puntos de inflexión para la seguridad hídrica, y b) el uso e integración de indicadores de estado de la criosfera en un sistema de alerta temprana, InfoSequia. como potenciales predictores de impacto y riesgo hídrico.
Representación esquemática de una cuenca de alta montaña, incluyendo los principales componentes, procesos e impactos relacionados con sequías.Esquema del Sistema de Alerta Temprana InfoSequia desarrollado por FutureWater y adaptado para la detección de riesgos hídricos en cuencas de alta montaña. Más información sobre InfoSequia.
La ficha descriptiva de MegaWat se puede descargar aquí.
Agradecimientos
Este proyecto ha recibido financiación del programa Water4All con cofinanciación de CDTI y del Programa Marco de Investigación e Innovación «Horizonte Europa» de la Unión Europea”
The aim is to develop a business case for a Watershed Investment Program for Addis Ababa. It includes stakeholder and governance analysis, scientific modeling, return on investment (ROI) analysis, and an implementation plan. Hydrological models are employed to assess the potential of Nature-based Solutions to mitigate the negative trends in the watershed, and improve water supply reliability, water quality, sedimentation and agricultural productivity. The study should raise awareness for all key stakeholders and potential investors. The study is performed under the Nature for Water Facility launched by The Nature Conservancy.
Southern Spain is a highly productive agricultural region, but with huge challenges around water scarcity and environmental sustainability. There is a demand in the agricultural sector to work towards water stewardship in Spain. The Alliance for Water Stewardship has developed a Standard which helps retailers and their suppliers to cause change at scale. This approach recognizes that there are common challenges that could be more easily overcome through a collective, place-based approach.
In the Doñana region, berry farms and groundwater usage are causing a conflict with the unique ecosystems in the National Park. A catchment assessment and active stakeholder engagement is needed as a first step in this region to work towards water stewardship. The catchment assessment will provide information on the catchment context, in line with the requirements of the Standard. The purpose of the assessment is to reduce the burden on agricultural sites by providing them with a common set of information which they and others can use to inform responses to their shared water challenges.
As part of the FAO’s Asia-Pacific Water Scarcity Programme (WSP), FutureWater conducts a scoping study to identify opportunities to improve sustainable water resources management in the country. Following this scoping assessment, FutureWater develops bankable investment concept notes for activities to strengthen national capacities to implement policy actions that prepare Mongolia for a water scarce future. As part of the project, a high level stakeholder consultation forum with key government stakeholders and development partners is organized to validate the findings of the assessment and prioritize the investment concepts.
Mongolia has a strong commitment to IWRM, as defined in the 2012 Water Law, and good progress has been made. This includes the establishment of river basin organizations (RBOs) to manage the 29 river basins in the country. Currently, there are 21 operational RBOs. However, these bodies lack the experience needed for implementation of their tasks. Training and professional development of employees of the water basin authorities are of the utmost importance, to enable them to implement the assigned tasks and be better positioned for advancing implementation of Target 6.5 of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Within the project we cooperate with the hydrologists of ARA-Norte to discuss and establish the baseline for a water system analysis in the Monapo Catchment. Following discussion and mapping sessions, FutureWater is developing a Water Allocation Model in WEAP that includes climate change scenarios and mitigation and adaptation measures to asses the water availability of the catchment. Part of the assignment includes continuous training to local professional, to ensure the application of the developed model in the analysis of the system and elaborating specific proposal for implementation in the region.
Nigeria as a country faces extensive Water Security Challenges (WSCs), from water availability and provisioning to water quality issues. These will become exacerbated by multiple future pressures, including huge increases in population and a changing climate. Oshun and Ogun catchments are located in the South West of Nigeria, in the same area as Lagos. These catchments face multiple challenges including unregulated groundwater extraction and poor sanitation infrastructure which compromise societal access to water.
NbS have the potential to contibute to addressing WSCs by increasing the overall resilience of the hydrological system, helping to increase infiltration to groundwater and buffer water quality issues. Alongside this, NbS can provide a wealth of co-benefits including carbon sequestration and increased biodiversity, complementing more traditional so-called ‘grey’ infrastructure such as pipelines and treatment plants.
Through extensive stakeholder consultation paired with GIS analysis and hydrological modelling, this project will help outline NbS which are best placed to address key WSCs, alongside identifying beneficiaries in the catchments of interest and existing parnerships in the catchment which are capable of delivering projects on-the-ground.
This work lays the foundations for the creation of so-called Watershed Investment Programmes (WIPs) in Osun and Ogun catchments, alongside the identification of further catchments in Nigeria which are disposed towards similar initiatives. WIPs aim to sustain and enhance the provisioning of key water-related ecosystem services by funding the conservation and restoration of lands that protect water quantity and quality. This is achieved through connecting downstream water users (e.g. water utilities, local governments, businesses, and the public) to upstream land managers (e.g. farmers and rural landowners). They unite these parties and others around the goal of enhancing water quality and quantity for societal benefits.
This consultancy project is framed by the AQUIFER project, “Innovative instruments for the integrated management of groundwater in a context of increasing scarcity of water resources” (Interreg-SUDOE V programme) which aims to capitalize, test, disseminate and transfer innovative practices for the preservation, monitoring and integrated management of aquifers.
FutureWater expertise was required for providing a novel and open-source hydrological modelling framework able to quantify spatial patterns of daily root percolation as a direct surrogate of groundwater recharge in the Campo de Cartagena Quaternary Aquifer (CC-QA). This aquifer is located at SE Spain and is one of the most important vectors of water drainage to the Mar Menor lagoon.
This task is addressed through the improvement and local calibration of the SPHY code for the Campo de Cartagena and the simulation of the water balance in the soil root zone from the 1950s until the end 2020. The SPHY-Campo de Cartagena includes a new routine able to compute irrigation inputs at the pixel level based on satellite data. Timeseries of monthly root percolation are taken as good surrogates of potential groundwater recharge and used as the main forcing input to an hydrogeological model of the Quaternary aquifer. The calibration process is performed through a sensititivity-intercomparison analysis in which model-derived outputs (irrigation and streamflow) during the calibration period are cross-checked against actual observations.
Spatial patterns of root percolation and the relative contribution of irrigation return flows to the total groundwater recharge were quantified (e.g. Figure 1) under historical and current conditions. Simulation results would show the lack of a significant temporal trend in the long-term recharge rates in the aquifer, most likely due to the the strong interannual variability observed in rainfall patterns, but also by the trade-offs resulting from the combination of climate, land use and irrigation-crop management drivers.
Figure 1. Mean Annual values of the main water balance components in Campo de Cartagena (2000-2020). RPer_ratio refers to the fraction between Root Percolation (MA.RPer) and Precipitation (MA.Pre)
FutureWater supports Fiera Comox in its due diligence process for the acquisition of a vertically integrated tree-fruit operation in North Spain. Particularly, FutureWater addresses an overall assessment of the most important water-related factors of risk that may control the current and medium-term feasibility of the fruit orchard farming system of interest. The application of FutureWater’s approach applies a multicriteria analysis and allows to qualify the levels of risk for each key factor analyzed.
FutureWater’s approach rests on: 1) the collection and analysis of data retrieved from documents, large datasets, and in-situ field inspections and stakeholder interviews, and 2) the scoring of the risks previously identified based on a final expert judgment.
Key sources of information for this risk screening included:
Existing documentation, reports, plans, and local legislation that may affect the access to water for irrigation
Existing and publicly accessible spatial and GIS data, including satellite imagery and thematic datasets available through national and regional agencies and platforms (Ebro River Basin Authority, National Infrastructure of Geospatial Data, Spanish Information System of Water)
Meteorological data (rainfall and temperature) from nearby weather stations
Groundwater level from the Spanish National Ministry of Environment.
Private data and documents generated by clients and stakeholders through personal and follow-up communications with farmer
Key variables analyzed and evaluated at the district and regional scales, to the extent relevant to the farm, included:
Water availability of surface and groundwater resources. For groundwater, a trend analysis of water levels, and first-order assessment of quality constraints and risks is included.
Impacts of climate change on water resources availability based on rainfall and temperature trends and projections for the region.
Water quality for irrigation purposes.
Potential conflicts due to competition for water in agriculture and other sectors of activity.
Legislative and policy-related factors that may affect the overall performance were also analyzed risk-by-risk.
Four factors of risk were analyzed: water availability, climate change, water quality, and water conflict. Each factor of risk was scored according to a risk matrix in which levels of probability of occurrence and impact severity were qualified based on data and expert judgement. For each factor, a risk matrix with three levels of overall risk were adopted: Low Risk (L), Moderate Risk (M), and High Risk (H)
Figure 1. Overall risk levels when probability of occurrence and impact severity are qualified.Figure 2. Overview of risk assessment by factor.
In this particular project, the approach was implemented in four different settings located in the area.
The MRC’s State of the Basin Report (SOBR) is a flagship product of the organization and an integral part of the MRC’s strategic planning cycle. Compiled about every five years based on the available data and information, the report assesses conditions and trends within the basin and the impacts that development and use of water and related natural resources are having. The SOBR provides a statement of past trends and current conditions, and seeks to highlight and provide guidance to Member Countries on significant transboundary issues that require cooperation among basin countries to address. The SOBR 2023 is structured around the Mekong River Basin Indicator Framework, consisting of 5 dimensions: Environment, Social, Economic, Climate Change, and Cooperation.
As a longstanding collaborator of MRCS, FutureWater was engaged to support the development of the Economic and Climate Change chapters of the SOBR 2023 and perform the related activities of data analyses, advisory on data gaps and SOBR content, attractive presentation of key results, and communication with Member Countries and specialized MRCS staff to address their comments and suggestions.
