The goal of the Asian Development Bank project ‘Renewable Energy for Climate Resilience’ in Bhutan is to diversify Bhutan’s energy portfolio. Bhutan’s power sector almost exclusively relies on hydropower generation. Hydropower, however, is vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters caused by climate change. The first deployment of non-hydro renewables at utility scale in Bhutan will be the first step to diversify the power generation portfolio, increase the resilience against severe weather events such as droughts, and complement the hydropower generation profile during the dry season. Other renewable energy resources such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind can complement hydropower in forming a more diversified electricity generation portfolio, which is, in healthy mix, resilient to changes in seasonal weather patterns and weather extremes that can adversely affect power supply.

Within this project ADB develops two solar and one wind plant. FutureWater has undertaken a Climate Risk and Adaptation assessment (CRA) for these power plants, with a two-fold objective:

  1. Validate the underlying rationale for diversification of Bhutan’s energy generation portfolio. The rationale is that more unreliable flows under climate change adversely affect the hydropower generation, in particular in the low flow season outside the monsoon season. This are the seasons with high potential for solar and wind energy, under the current climate conditions. The diversification of Bhutan’s energy generation portfolio is considered as type 2 adaptation, related to system change and resilience building in the climate change context.
  2. Assess the vulnerability of the project components to future climate change and recommend adaptation options for climate-proofing of the design. This is considered as type 1 adaptation, related to climate proofing.

The rationale for diversification is related to the expectation that climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology in Bhutan will lead to less reliable flows, in particular outside the monsoon season. This will make hydropower a less reliable source of energy, which may not be sufficient during the dry season. During these periods outside the monsoon season, the climate in Bhutan is characterized by clear skies and daily patterns of wind. This intuitively makes solar and wind suitable energy sources to complement hydropower.

The CRA concludes that this rationale holds when validated with future scenarios of climate change and hydrological changes. These project more erratic flows, meaning on one hand more extremes on the high end (floods), in itself posing risks for hydropower infrastructure, but also through increasing sediment loads and risks of exposure to landslides and glacier lake outburst floods. On the other hand, a small increase in frequency and length of hydrological droughts is projected. Furthermore, projections of wind speed and incoming solar radiation indicate more or less stable conditions compared to the present day climate, further substantiating the rationale for portfolio diversification.

For adaptation and climate proofing the main recommendation is to verify that the proposed drainage systems at the sites are sized for extreme flows that are 20-30% larger in magnitude than current extremes. This is valid across return periods. The second high priority recommendation is to design foundations of solar, wind, and transmission infrastructure to withstand increased erosion rates and substantially increased risk of landslides in landslide prone areas. A third recommendation is to take into account lower production for solar panels at increased frequency of heat stress, as well as in the sizing of capacity of transmission infrastructure, which may have reduced capacity during periods of high heat stress.

The purpose of these calculations was to provide a definite answer about the usefulness and necessity of the proposed storm water retention areas that were seen as necessary in 2009. Various scenario calculations were performed using a Sobek model in which water levels and discharges were compared under the current and future climate and with and without integration of the storm water retention areas.

The activities in this project included:

  • Testing of discharge and water levels at critical locations for the climate scenario at different recurrence times (flood risk assessment using climate scenario),
  • Comparison to the results of the flood risk assessment using historical climate data,
  • Integration of storm water retention areas in the Sobek model and analysis of their impact on water levels, discharge  at critical locations (usefulness and necessity for storm water retention areas, answer to LBW),
  • An initial estimate of critical locations along specific flood defense barriers for the different scenarios (high resolution comparison of water levels and defenses barrier heights) and
  • A comparison of the results with a number of previously conducted studies.

During the project, the flood risk assessment method, which was developed by Arcadis in 2020, was (further) automated, so that the method can be applied more quickly and for other comparable projects within Vechtstromen Water Board. Based on the results of the calculations, clear advice could be given on the usefulness and necessity of the proposed storm water retention areas as they were proposed in 2009.

More information about the method for standardizing regional flooding that is used by the Vechtstromen Water Board can be found on the following website (in Dutch): https://www.vechtstromen.nl/over/klimaat/wateroverlast/normering/werkt-normering/

Geodata tools have been developing rapidly in the past years and are vastly adopted by researchers and increasingly by policy-makers. However, the is still great potential to increase the practical application of these tools in the agricultural sector, which is currently applied by a limited number of ‘pioneering’ farmers. The information that can be gained from geodata tools on irrigation management, pest and nutrient management, and crop selection, is a valuable asset for farmers. Key players for providing such information to the farmers are the extensions officers. This project aims at training extensions officers in the use of these geodata tools. The beneficiaries in Egypt are: Tamkeen for Advanced Agriculture, FAODA, IDAM, Bio-Oasis, and LEPECHA. The selected participants will receive a training programme which consists firstly of several session on the background and theory of the geodata tools, provided through our online teaching platform (futurewater.moodle.school). Starting from May (2021) field schools will be set up to use the geodata tools for decision-making in these demonstration plots. In addition, modules are taught on the quality of the data, and profitability of such tools. Altogether, a group of carefully selected participants will receive training on these innovative tools and create a bridge to providing this information to farmers specifically the smallholder farmers.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) is supporting the Government of Kazakhstan in it’s “Wastewater Treatment Plants Reconstruction and Construction Program”. The overall aim is to improve the wastewater treatment facilities in the 53 cities across Kazakhstan. The Program will be implemented through a phased approach. During the first phase five Wastewater Treatment Plants in Stepnogorsk, Zhezkazgan, Satpayev, Balkhash and Zhanatas are to be financed by ADB.

FutureWater has undertaken a climate risk and adaptation analysis for those facilities. FutureWater has extended and updated a previous climate risk assessment (CRA). The original CRA was based on the CMIP3 projections and only some selected climate models were used. FutureWater has updated the original CRA by using downscaled CMIP5 projections (NASA-NEX) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and the full range of climate models. Also adaptation strategies were refined.

Results show that the key climate risks includes a projected increase in mean annual temperature for all five waste water treatment plants and hottest day temperature are in the same range. Those higher temperatures might negatively affect operations and efficiencies of the plants. Mean annual precipitation is projected to increase for all five treatment plants. Potential risk of flooding of the infrastructure or large influx of storm water is determined by wettest day precipitation. An increase in wettest day precipitation is projected to be between 6% to 14%. Zhanatas and Stepnogorsk waste water treatment plants are most vulnerable regarding the risk of increased severity and frequency of floods.

Adaptation interventions to those projected climate changes are explored in the initial environmental examination (IEE) and will be further developed during the detailed design phase. The following broad adaptation options are foreseen:

  • selection of sites less prone to flooding for the two new WWTP,
  • flood protection of the three WWTP to be rehabilitated,
  • selection of sewerage technology that will function under higher temperatures,
  • awareness raising of staff, and
  • monitoring to avoid sewer overflows during storm events.

The Asian Development Bank is supporting the Government of Indonesia in developing its water infrastructure. Impact of climate change and potential adaptation to those changes are evaluated. One component of the project is to assess water availability for all Indonesian catchments currently and under changing climate. FutureWater has supported the program by developing a climate risk screening approach to rapidly assess current water resource availability and the impact of climate change on this.

Various rapid assessment assessments have been tested and the Turc implementation of the Budyko framework has been proven to be effective for basins in Indonesia. ERA5 past climate and NASA-NEX GDDP climate projections have been applied for all basins in Indonesia. Results show that all Indonesian basins are likely to see an increase in runoff over the coming century. However, variability in runoff will increase, with more extreme dry and wet periods. This will have implications for water management planning and climate related hazards such as more prolonged droughts and higher risks of flooding.

Recently, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program introduced agriculture and water as a new cluster in its strategic framework. Recognizing the complexities of the water sector and the existing landscape of cooperation activities, the strategic framework proposes a complementary approach that uses the strengths of CAREC to further promote dialogue on water issues. A scoping study was commissioned, supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), to develop a framework for the Water Pillar for further consideration by the governing bodies of CAREC. It was agreed that the initial focus of the Water Pillar should be on the five Central Asian states with consideration given to expanding to other CAREC member countries over time.

The objective of the study is to develop the scope of a Water Pillar Framework that includes a roadmap of national development interventions for each of the five Central Asian Republics that responds to the prevailing challenges and opportunities in water resources management.

The framework will be derived from three specific outputs:

  • Output 1: Projection of future availability and demand for water resources for the Central Asia region up to 2050 including implications of climate change.
  • Output 2: Identification of future water resources development and management opportunities in the form of a sector specific framework for water resources infrastructure taking into consideration sustainability issues through a comparative assessment of cost recovery mechanisms and operation and maintenance (O&M) practices.
  • Output 3: Preparation of a framework for policy and institutional strengthening that addresses common themes and issues related to national water resources legislation and the capacity and knowledge development needs of water resources agencies with an emphasis on economic aspects and sustainable financing.

For this work, several consultants were recruited. FutureWater provides key inputs on the climate change and water resources aspects, including desk review, stakeholder consultations across the five regions and across all sectors, and analysis of climate change risks and identification of adaptation options that have a regional dimension and can be taken up through regional or bilateral cooperation.

Morocco is a country with extremely arid areas and a complex topography. The majority of climate change related studies predict increases in temperature and generalised decreases in precipitation, however the outputs of these studies are limited in that the resolution of the climate models used is relatively low and therefore often does not pick up variation over areas of complex topography (in which much of the population live). This study therefore helps generate a higher resolution, bias corrected climate dataset. It is also important that trends in precipitation, and more importantly drought, are better understood as Morocco is highly vulnerable to water scarcity. This study therefore focuses on the impacts of climate change on extreme low precipitation, which is directly linked to water shortages and drought events. The study adds valuable new insights to climate change impact analysis in Morocco and is the first to use downscaled climate data to focus on sector wise impact. The data outputs will be located at a number of universities and government ministries in Morocco.

The Sous-Massa basin is located in central Morocco. It represents an arid area that will likely face water resources challenges into the coming decades due to the influence of climate change and socioeconomic development. Indeed, increases in temperatures and decreases in precipitation are anticipated in the Sous-Massa region, alongside more extreme intense precipitation and drought events. It is therefore important the the impacts of climate change on water availability are better constrained to target resilience measures and better prepare for potential future water scarcity.

With the results of this project, IMWI will be able to apply the Water Accounting Plus framework to the Sous-Massa basin, helping to better constrain the likely impacts of climate change on future water availability. This project therefore helps support the targeting and prioritisation of climate resilient interventions which can be taken by the government and other members of the water sector in this area of Morocco.

Hydropower is essential to fulfill future energy demands. Water scarcity is likely to increase due to climate change and aase in water demand. Therefore, Climate Risk Assessments are required before large investments in new and large hydropower stations (>100 MW) are made. Small hydropower (1 – 20 MW) does not require these Climate Risk Assessments yet, but this will eventually happen in the future. Investors are highly interested in the profitability of these small hydropower stations, especially because of the uncertainty caused by future climate change. Current methods for Climate Risk Assessments (CRA) are however still too costly for these small-hydro projects because they are very labor intensive and require specific knowledge.

FutureWater has carried out a feasibility study to assess the possibilities for the development of a «Small-Hydro Climate Risk Assessment tool» (SH-CRA) that can make CRA’s for small-hydro projects cost effective. The starting point of this project to develop the SH-CRA is the recent change in the approach to CRA’s: until a few years ago, these were based purely on climate models, also known as the “Top-down” approach. Nowadays however, investors require a more pragmatic approach in which climate risks are balanced against other risks and presented in a clear way. This new “Bottom-up” approach makes it possible for small-hydro projects to include climate risks in the investment decision.

This feasibility project has therefore investigated whether the “bottom-up” climate risk analysis approach can make it possible to develop such a SH-CRA solution, based on a combination of literature research, an inventory of available technology and potential partners, and competition analysis.

Para atender a los retos de desarrollo territorial y de adaptación al cambio climático a los que se enfrenta la Cuenca Hidrográfica del Canal de Panamá (CHCP), la Autoridad del Canal de Panamá (ACP) ha puesto en marcha la generación de un instrumento rector de carácter regional -PIOTA- en el que se establecerá la hoja de ruta a seguir (Ruta Verde 2050) para garantizar la seguridad hídrica de la población, el desarrollo socioeconómico y la gestión integral y sostenible de la región, y el mantenimiento de las operaciones del Canal de Panamá, y de los servicios ecosistémicos de la cuenca. Los desafíos planteados cobran particular relevancia bajo escenarios de gran incertidumbre debido al cambio climático y las crecientes presiones sobre los recursos hídricos derivadas del crecimiento poblacional y la urbanización, y el deterioro ambiental observado en las zonas rurales y periurbanas del área metropolitana del país.

La cooperación técnica que se ofrece a través de este proyecto permitirá a la ACP y al BID diseñar un esquema de implementación de intervenciones (a nivel estratégico y de ejecución de proyectos) para fomentar el desarrollo sostenible de la CHCP.

El proyecto se ejecuta en 4 fases (Figura 1):

  1. Diagnóstico, donde se realizan la caracterización sectorial e integrada del modelo territorial actual
  2. Prospectiva, donde se implementará una metodología de decisión robusta para la cuantificación de la vulnerabilidad del sistema actual, y futura frente a la incertidumbre impuesta por el cambio climático, diferentes escenarios de desarrollo socio-económico, y opciones de adaptación.
  3. Estrategia, para la descripción detallada de la “Ruta Verde 2050” incluyendo las líneas de actuación y de ordenación ambiental, y las estrategia de mitigación y adaptación.
  4. Plan (PIOTA), que abordará los aspectos prácticos de relacionados con zonificación territorial, los estudios de prefactibilidad, y un programa de evaluación y monitoreo para garantizar la implementación efectiva del Plan de Ordenación
Figura 1. Fases del Proyecto “PIOTA para la Cuenca Hidrográfica del Canal de Panamá”.

FutureWater contribuye al proyecto asumiendo la responsabilidad de la Fase 2, para lo cual se aprovechará de la experiencia adquirida en los últimos años y otros lugares del mundo en relación a la aplicación de metodologías de decisión robusta, y la cuantificación de la vulnerabilidad de los sistemas hídricos frente a escenarios de cambio climático y de desarrollo territorial. La aplicación de la metodología incluirá la construcción de un modelo de oferta-demanda usando la herramienta WEAP y la capacitación técnica de la ACP, la cuantificación de la incertidumbre climática y la generación de escenarios de clima regionalizados para el área de estudio, y la aplicación de marco analítico para cuantificar el desempeño y la vulnerabilidad la cuenca frente a los escenarios de cambio analizados y las posibles opciones y estrategias de adaptación concertadas con los agentes de interés.

Visite este sitio web para obtener más información sobre el proyecto: https://piota-panama-cyt.hub.arcgis.com/