A consortium of international development finance institutions led by World bank and including Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signaled their intention to support the financing of the project. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development and incorporating adaptation measures in the design.

For this project FutureWater undertakes work to analyze climate change risk faced by Rogun HPP and the interaction between climate change, climate-responsive HPP operation, and downstream water resource demand as a 2nd phase following initial due diligence of ADB on available project documentation. The detailed tasks entail:

  • Analyze downscaled CMIP6 General Circulation Model (GCM) to understand projected changes in precipitation and heat trends across climate change scenarios in the Rogun dam catchment area. This includes assessment of indicators for likelihood of heatwave and extreme precipitation events.
  • Undertake an estimate of the Probable Maximum Flood level in the Rogun dam catchment through event-based simulation modelling factoring in changes to projections for extreme precipitation events and changing hydrological processes due to climate change.
  • Estimate the likelihood of annual discharge change based on climate change projections to understand the likelihood of Rogun HPP project economics being negatively affected by declining capacity factor driven by climate change impacts on hydrology.
  • Conduct a first order analysis of present and future glacial lake outburst flood risk based on review of studies from reputable sources.

With the results of this analysis, ADB can update earlier climate risk studies and guide investment decisions.

 

Graphical User Interfaces are available for QGIS but only for SPHY v2.0 at the moment. This project will upgrade these plugins in order to make them compatible with the latest versions of SPHY (v3.0 and v3.1), QGIS and Python available. The updated plugins will also incorporate the additional functionalities to process state of the art new data sources as inputs.

As SPHY is used by FutureWater in several capacity building programs, our aim is to make the access to the data and the model as easy and intuitive as possible. With updated QGIS Plugins, no programming skills will be required to run the model, so a broader audience can use SPHY for their own purposes.

More information can be found at the SPHY website.

La mayoría de las investigaciones recientes se han centrado en la identificación de episodios históricos basados en paleoregistros y la comprensión de sus causas climáticas, o en el estudio de megasequías “modernas” y sus impactos, generalmente en cuencas bajas y llanuras. Sin embargo, las cuencas de montaña han sido poco estudiadas y poco se sabe sobre el impacto de las megasequías en el estado y dinámica de la criosfera o torres de agua de montaña. Las cuencas vertientes dependientes de sistemas de alta montaña disponen de una capacidad para amortiguar la falta de precipitaciones y exceso de evapotranspiración que depende de las reservas de agua proporcionadas por la criosfera (nieve, glaciares y permafrost). Se presume, que la capacidad de amortiguación es limitada hasta alcanzar un punto de inflexión donde los impactos de la falta de agua y temperaturas extremas pueden verse amplificados y poner en peligro el funcionamiento del ecosistema hídrico.

MegaWat tiene un doble objetivo: 1) abordar las lagunas de conocimiento entorno a las causas hidroclimáticas de las sequías extremas y su impacto en el balance del agua de las torres de agua de montaña de Europa, haciendo especial énfasis en la concurrencia de eventos compuestos y los efectos en cascada y multiescala, y 2) desarrollar y proponer nuevas estrategias de adaptación para hacer frente a la duración, extensión e intensidad de futuras megasequías y sus impactos ambientales y socioeconómicos.

Para su implementación, MegaWat se centra en los sistemas de alta montaña de Europa y sus cuencas vertientes. MegaWat ambiciona el desarrollo de tres productos:

  • Producto 1. Marco metodológico para la identificación y caracterización de megasequías históricas durante el periodo instrumental, y la evaluación del papel que juega la criosfera en la amortiguación de los impactos del cambio climático y el desarrollo territorial en las cuencas vertientes. El producto 1 descansa en la combinación de herramientas de regionalización climática, modelización del balance de energía en superficie, simulación hidrológica, y códigos de evaluación y asignación optimización de recursos hídricos.
  • Producto 2. Base de datos climática regionalizada de alta resolución y de acceso libre. (ver figura)
  • Producto 3. Listado de estrategias de adaptación para la prevención y amortiguación de impactos, y el aumento de la seguridad hídrica y resiliencia de cuencas de alta montaña. Estos escenarios serán consensuados con agentes locales y partes interesadas, y su efectividad se evaluarán bajo escenarios extremos, no antes descritos pero plausibles, en tres cuencas piloto de alta montaña previamente seleccionadas por su representatividad, importancia estratégica y vulnerabilidad a las sequías.
Representación esquemática de una cuenca de alta montaña, incluyendo los principales componentes, procesos e impactos relacionados con sequías.

En MegaWater, FutureWater coordina el paquete de trabajo para el desarrollo e implementación de herramientas de soporte a la decisión y adaptación a megasequías, incluyendo la organización de actividades con actores locales y partes interesadas para la priorización de intervenciones y puesta en común de resultados. El paquete de trabajo se organiza a través de dos actividades específicas: a) el desarrollo de un prototipo metodológico para cuantificación de impactos en cuencas vertientes y la identificación de puntos de inflexión para la seguridad hídrica, y b) el uso e integración de indicadores de estado de la criosfera en un sistema de alerta temprana, InfoSequia. como potenciales predictores de impacto y riesgo hídrico. (ver figura)

Esquema del Sistema de Alerta Temprana InfoSequia desarrollado por FutureWater y adaptado para la detección de riesgos hídricos en cuencas de alta montaña. Más información sobre InfoSequia.

La ficha descriptiva de MegaWat se puede descargar aquí.

Agradecimientos

Este proyecto ha recibido financiación del programa Water4All con cofinanciación de CDTI y del Programa Marco de Investigación e Innovación Horizonte Europa de la Unión Europea.

The aim is to develop a business case for a Watershed Investment Program for Addis Ababa. It includes stakeholder and governance analysis, scientific modeling, return on investment (ROI) analysis, and an implementation plan. Hydrological models are employed to assess the potential of Nature-based Solutions to mitigate the negative trends in the watershed, and improve water supply reliability, water quality, sedimentation and agricultural productivity. The study should raise awareness for all key stakeholders and potential investors. The study is performed under the Nature for Water Facility launched by The Nature Conservancy.

Urban flood management in Laos is typically based on a limited, hard infrastructure approach. With the aim to shift this paradigm towards an integrated approach that enhances climate resilience, the project “Building resilience of urban populations with ecosystem-based solutions in Lao PDR” was approved by the Green Climate Fund Board in November 2019 with a GCF grant of US$10 million. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) serves as the Accredited Entity for the project. Activities are executed by the State of Lao PDR through the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) as well as UNEP. The project is implemented across five years (2020-2025) covering four provincial capitals in the country: Vientiane, Paksan, Savannakhet, and Pakse.

One component of the project involves technical and institutional capacity building to plan, design, implement and maintain integrated urban Ecosystems-based Adaptation (EbA) interventions for the reduction of climate change induced flooding. As a part of Integrated Climate-resilient Flood Management Strategy (ICFMS) development, the project conducts hydrological, hydraulic and climate risk assessments to inform climate change adaptation solutions for risk reduction in Vientiane, Paksan, Savannakhet and Pakse.

A consortium of FutureWater, Mekong Modelling Associates (MMA) and Lao Consulting Group (LCG) was contracted by MONRE to implement the related activities. FutureWater leads and coordinates this assignment and contributes remote sensing analyses with state-of-the-art innovative tools, climate risk assessments, and training activities. To ensure sustainability and effective technology transfer, the modelling and mapping infrastructure and trained staff will be hosted within MONRE and a knowledge hub that is established within the National University of Laos.

 

Southern Spain is a highly productive agricultural region, but with huge challenges around water scarcity and environmental sustainability. There is a demand in the agricultural sector to work towards water stewardship in Spain. The Alliance for Water Stewardship has developed a Standard which helps retailers and their suppliers to cause change at scale. This approach recognizes that there are common challenges that could be more easily overcome through a collective, place-based approach.

In the Doñana region, berry farms and groundwater usage are causing a conflict with the unique ecosystems in the National Park. A catchment assessment and active stakeholder engagement is needed as a first step in this region to work towards water stewardship. The catchment assessment will provide information on the catchment context, in line with the requirements of the Standard. The purpose of the assessment is to reduce the burden on agricultural sites by providing them with a common set of information which they and others can use to inform responses to their shared water challenges.

Nigeria as a country faces extensive Water Security Challenges (WSCs), from water availability and provisioning to water quality issues. These will become exacerbated by multiple future pressures, including huge increases in population and a changing climate. Oshun and Ogun catchments are located in the South West of Nigeria, in the same area as Lagos. These catchments face multiple challenges including unregulated groundwater extraction and poor sanitation infrastructure which compromise societal access to water.

NbS have the potential to contibute to addressing WSCs by increasing the overall resilience of the hydrological system, helping to increase infiltration to groundwater and buffer water quality issues. Alongside this, NbS can provide a wealth of co-benefits including carbon sequestration and increased biodiversity, complementing more traditional so-called ‘grey’ infrastructure such as pipelines and treatment plants.

Through extensive stakeholder consultation paired with GIS analysis and hydrological modelling, this project will help outline NbS which are best placed to address key WSCs, alongside identifying beneficiaries in the catchments of interest and existing parnerships in the catchment which are capable of delivering projects on-the-ground.

This work lays the foundations for the creation of so-called Watershed Investment Programmes (WIPs) in Osun and Ogun catchments, alongside the identification of further catchments in Nigeria which are disposed towards similar initiatives. WIPs aim to sustain and enhance the provisioning of key water-related ecosystem services by funding the conservation and restoration of lands that protect water quantity and quality. This is achieved through connecting downstream water users (e.g. water utilities, local governments, businesses, and the public) to upstream land managers (e.g. farmers and rural landowners). They unite these parties and others around the goal of enhancing water quality and quantity for societal benefits.

This consultancy project is framed by the AQUIFER project, “Innovative instruments for the integrated management of groundwater in a context of increasing scarcity of water resources” (Interreg-SUDOE V programme) which aims to capitalize, test, disseminate and transfer innovative practices for the preservation, monitoring and integrated management of aquifers.

FutureWater expertise was required for providing a novel and open-source hydrological modelling framework able to quantify spatial patterns of daily root percolation as a direct surrogate of groundwater recharge in the Campo de Cartagena Quaternary Aquifer (CC-QA). This aquifer is located at SE Spain and is one of the most important vectors of water drainage to the Mar Menor lagoon.

This task is addressed through the improvement and local calibration of the SPHY code for the Campo de Cartagena and the simulation of the water balance in the soil root zone from the 1950s until the end 2020. The SPHY-Campo de Cartagena includes a new routine able to compute irrigation inputs at the pixel level based on satellite data. Timeseries of monthly root percolation are taken as good surrogates of potential groundwater recharge and used as the main forcing input to an hydrogeological model of the Quaternary aquifer. The calibration process is performed through a sensititivity-intercomparison analysis in which model-derived outputs (irrigation and streamflow) during the calibration period are cross-checked against actual observations.

Spatial patterns of root percolation and the relative contribution of irrigation return flows to the total groundwater recharge were quantified (e.g. Figure 1) under historical and current conditions. Simulation results would show the lack of a significant temporal trend in the long-term recharge rates in the aquifer, most likely due to the the strong interannual variability observed in rainfall patterns, but also by the trade-offs resulting from the combination of climate, land use and irrigation-crop management drivers.

Figure 1. Mean Annual values of the main water balance components in Campo de Cartagena (2000-2020). RPer_ratio refers to the fraction between Root Percolation (MA.RPer) and Precipitation (MA.Pre)

La alarmante disminución de los manantiales se ha atribuido a la rápida expansión de las redes viales, junto con los cambios en la cobertura del suelo y el clima. El desarrollo de carreteras en estas áreas expone los manantiales a alteraciones o modifica su flujo natural, mientras que el corte de rocas interrumpe la ubicación de los orificios de los manantiales. Este problema ha pasado en gran medida desapercibido, lo que supone una amenaza significativa para las comunidades locales y sus recursos hídricos.

El objetivo principal del proyecto es reinventar las carreteras como instrumentos para la mejora del paisaje en lugar de adversarios, aprovechando el desarrollo vial para contribuir positivamente a los recursos hídricos locales. Al integrar técnicas y herramientas (gemelos digitales y un conjunto de herramientas de apoyo a la toma de decisiones), el proyecto pretende garantizar un suministro de agua seguro y fiable para las personas en zonas montañosas, al tiempo que se protege la calidad de la infraestructura vial y se mantiene la conectividad. El municipio de Dhankuta y el Departamento de Infraestructura Local (DoLI), que regula las actividades de desarrollo de infraestructuras en Nepal, serán los principales beneficiarios de este proyecto.

Los resultados esperados del proyecto RoSPro incluyen:

  1. Implementación exitosa de la protección de manantiales junto a carreteras a través de intervenciones piloto en el municipio de Dhankuta y promoción de enfoques basados en “soluciones basadas en la naturaleza” y “Carreteras Verdes para el Agua (GR4W)”.
  2. Generación de evidencia sobre el impacto de la intervención piloto a través de un análisis de costo-beneficio.
  3. Evaluación del impacto potencial de la ampliación de la protección de manantiales junto a carreteras mediante el desarrollo de un gemelo digital y un conjunto de herramientas de apoyo a la toma de decisiones.
  4. Desarrollo de capacidades para el municipio de Dhankuta y DoLI en lo que respecta a enfoques, tecnologías, impacto y ampliación de la protección de manantiales junto a carreteras.

RoSPro conducirá a una mayor seguridad hídrica para usos de consumo y productivos, beneficiando directamente a hasta 500 hogares en la región. Tras la fase piloto, el proyecto pretende ampliar sus servicios a clientes establecidos y redes de socios en Asia y África. La demanda de servicios similares es alta en muchos países de alta montaña, y RoSPro tiene como objetivo generar un marco para escalar este modelo a niveles nacionales y regionales.

Así, RoSPro es una iniciativa vital que busca abordar el problema crítico de la disminución de manantiales en el Himalaya. Al transformar el desarrollo vial en un contribuyente a los recursos hídricos locales, RoSPro mejorará la seguridad y calidad del agua, beneficiando tanto a las comunidades como al medio ambiente en estas desafiantes regiones montañosas.

Tajikistan has initiated the Water Sector Reform Program, aiming to enhance water resource planning and allocation across different river basin zones. However, the development of a comprehensive integrated water resources management plan is hindered by a lack of data on snow and glacier melt. The impact of climate change on the cryosphere, including changes in glacier ice storage, snow dynamics, and evaporation rates, further compounds the issue by affecting high mountain water supply and altering runoff composition and overall water availability.

To address this challenge, the «Integrated Rural Development Project» (IRDP), implemented by GIZ as part of the bilateral development project «Towards Rural Inclusive Growth and Economic Resilience (TRIGGER),» focuses on enhancing the value of agricultural production in Tajikistan. As part of the project, the Water Output (Output 1.5) provides technical support to the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources (MEWR) in the Zarafshon River Basin and at the national level. This support includes technical advisory services, capacity building, training measures, and improving access to irrigation water for small-scale farmers. Local relevant stakeholders foreseen as project beneficiaries are MEWR, Zarafshon River Basin (Zarafshon RBO), Center of Glacier Research (CGR), the Institute of Water Problems (IWP) and the Agency for Hydrometeorology, Tajikistan.

The project has three core components: data collection, modeling, and capacity building, as outlined below. Data collection will include both field monitoring campaigns using UAVs and retrieving historical records which could either be past in-situ observations, remotely sensed or modelled data. This comprehensive dataset will be used to set up, calibrate and validate Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) and WEAP models. The project will use the model-chain to provide the probabilistic flow forecast (likelihood to be in dry, medium, or wet conditions) using the seasonal meteorological forecast data. The SPHY-WEAP model-chain will then be deployed in the Zarafshon RBO-based servers. The results of the model-chain will be used to develop a comprehensive policy guidance note, proposing strategies and a way forward for developing a robust climate-resilient integrated water resources management plan that will ensure both water availability and accessibility across the river basin. Capacity building is a critical component of the project to ensure its sustainability and upscaling. Therefore, six capacity-building trainings (online and in-country) targeting different technical areas of the project will be organized throughout the project.

By undertaking these efforts, we aim to contribute to the successful implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management in Zarafshon and Tajikistan.