El enfoque de FutureWater y Galayr es a la vez científicamente riguroso y contextualmente sólido, garantizando que el modelo de sequía desarrollado sea relevante a nivel local, sostenible y esté plenamente integrado con los sistemas nacionales existentes, como los de SODMA y NADFOR. El modelo combina enfoques descendentes (basados en datos, utilizando el aprendizaje automático) y ascendentes (informados por las partes interesadas), combinando datos de satélite, índices climáticos y conocimientos indígenas para desarrollar conjuntamente predicciones basadas en el impacto y desencadenantes consensuados para la acción anticipatoria.

Para el desarrollo de modelos de predicción de sequías y la transferencia de conocimientos, nos centramos en los siguientes pilares:

  • Un plan de trabajo por fases que incluya evaluaciones de la capacidad institucional, desarrollo de modelos, validación, consultas a las partes interesadas y desarrollo de capacidades prácticas.
  • Aplicación de modelos avanzados de predicción, desde ARIMA y regresión hasta técnicas más avanzadas de aprendizaje automático, sin perder de vista la facilidad de uso y la adopción institucional.
  • Un fuerte énfasis en la transferencia de conocimientos, incluyendo programas de formación y el establecimiento de una plataforma colaborativa de intercambio de conocimientos utilizando la plataforma FutureWater Academy
  • Un sólido plan de gestión de riesgos, que incluya estrategias de mitigación de la escasez de datos, la participación de las partes interesadas y el desgaste institucional.

El proyecto de investigación internacional sobre megasequías en las torres de agua de Europa (MegaWat) se lanzó oficialmente con una reunión inaugural en el Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología de Austria (ISTA) los días 4 y 5 de septiembre de 2024.

El encuentro reunió a todos los socios del proyecto para discutir el marco de investigación, las metodologías y los objetivos de colaboración. Este proyecto ha recibido financiación del programa Water4All con cofinanciación de CDTI (Oficina Española de Ciencia y Tecnología) y del Programa Marco de Investigación e Innovación Horizon Europe de la UE.

Este ambicioso proyecto tiene como objetivo mejorar la comprensión de las megasequías pasadas y futuras mediante la integración de reconstrucciones climáticas de alta resolución, datos de anillos de árboles y modelado hidroclimático. Investigadores de España (FutureWater), Austria, Suiza, Países Bajos y otros países trabajarán juntos para evaluar la frecuencia, los factores desencadenantes y los impactos de eventos de sequía extrema.

La reunión inaugural promovió el intercambio interdisciplinario y sentó las bases para una colaboración efectiva en los próximos años. Con un fuerte enfoque en los datos históricos y las proyecciones futuras, el proyecto busca proporcionar información valiosa para la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la resiliencia climática en un mundo en constante cambio.

Agradecimientos

Este proyecto ha recibido financiación del programa Water4All con cofinanciación de CDTI (Oficina Española de Ciencia y Tecnología) y del Programa Marco de Investigación e Innovación Horizon Europe de la UE.

La mayoría de las investigaciones recientes se han centrado en la identificación de episodios históricos basados en paleoregistros y la comprensión de sus causas climáticas, o en el estudio de megasequías “modernas” y sus impactos, generalmente en cuencas bajas y llanuras. Sin embargo, las cuencas de montaña han sido poco estudiadas y poco se sabe sobre el impacto de las megasequías en el estado y dinámica de la criosfera o torres de agua de montaña. Las cuencas vertientes dependientes de sistemas de alta montaña disponen de una capacidad para amortiguar la falta de precipitaciones y exceso de evapotranspiración que depende de las reservas de agua proporcionadas por la criosfera (nieve, glaciares y permafrost). Se presume, que la capacidad de amortiguación es limitada hasta alcanzar un punto de inflexión donde los impactos de la falta de agua y temperaturas extremas pueden verse amplificados y poner en peligro el funcionamiento del ecosistema hídrico.

MegaWat tiene un doble objetivo: 1) abordar las lagunas de conocimiento entorno a las causas hidroclimáticas de las sequías extremas y su impacto en el balance del agua de las torres de agua de montaña de Europa, haciendo especial énfasis en la concurrencia de eventos compuestos y los efectos en cascada y multiescala, y 2) desarrollar y proponer nuevas estrategias de adaptación para hacer frente a la duración, extensión e intensidad de futuras megasequías y sus impactos ambientales y socioeconómicos.

Para su implementación, MegaWat se centra en los sistemas de alta montaña de Europa y sus cuencas vertientes. MegaWat ambiciona el desarrollo de tres productos:

  • Producto 1. Marco metodológico para la identificación y caracterización de megasequías históricas durante el periodo instrumental, y la evaluación del papel que juega la criosfera en la amortiguación de los impactos del cambio climático y el desarrollo territorial en las cuencas vertientes. El producto 1 descansa en la combinación de herramientas de regionalización climática, modelización del balance de energía en superficie, simulación hidrológica, y códigos de evaluación y asignación optimización de recursos hídricos.
  • Producto 2. Base de datos climática regionalizada de alta resolución y de acceso libre. (ver figura)
  • Producto 3. Listado de estrategias de adaptación para la prevención y amortiguación de impactos, y el aumento de la seguridad hídrica y resiliencia de cuencas de alta montaña. Estos escenarios serán consensuados con agentes locales y partes interesadas, y su efectividad se evaluarán bajo escenarios extremos, no antes descritos pero plausibles, en tres cuencas piloto de alta montaña previamente seleccionadas por su representatividad, importancia estratégica y vulnerabilidad a las sequías.
Representación esquemática de una cuenca de alta montaña, incluyendo los principales componentes, procesos e impactos relacionados con sequías.

En MegaWater, FutureWater coordina el paquete de trabajo para el desarrollo e implementación de herramientas de soporte a la decisión y adaptación a megasequías, incluyendo la organización de actividades con actores locales y partes interesadas para la priorización de intervenciones y puesta en común de resultados. El paquete de trabajo se organiza a través de dos actividades específicas: a) el desarrollo de un prototipo metodológico para cuantificación de impactos en cuencas vertientes y la identificación de puntos de inflexión para la seguridad hídrica, y b) el uso e integración de indicadores de estado de la criosfera en un sistema de alerta temprana, InfoSequia. como potenciales predictores de impacto y riesgo hídrico. (ver figura)

Esquema del Sistema de Alerta Temprana InfoSequia desarrollado por FutureWater y adaptado para la detección de riesgos hídricos en cuencas de alta montaña. Más información sobre InfoSequia.

La ficha descriptiva de MegaWat se puede descargar aquí.

Agradecimientos

Este proyecto ha recibido financiación del programa Water4All con cofinanciación de CDTI y del Programa Marco de Investigación e Innovación Horizonte Europa de la Unión Europea.

Analysis of the historical climate data and future model projections indicates significant shifts in rainfall patterns. These shifts could influence water availability within the upstream river basins, which are vital for irrigation practices and ecological balance. Furthermore, the study explores variations in temperature -including average, minimum, and maximum values- and evaluates their potential consequences on water demand due to increased evaporation rates and altered crop water needs.

Additionally, this scoping research touches upon the effects of these climatic factors on olive crop phenology and productivity. The study also considers the likelihood of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts, and their potential to disrupt traditional farming cycles and water resource management strategies.

The outcomes of this analysis are aimed at providing an olive producing firm with insights and strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on olive production in these targeted regions of Andalucia. By foreseeing potential challenges and preparing for them, a decision can be made on whether to invest or not in order to maintain a leading olive producer on the global stage.

Southern Spain is a highly productive agricultural region, but with huge challenges around water scarcity and environmental sustainability. There is a demand in the agricultural sector to work towards water stewardship in Spain. The Alliance for Water Stewardship has developed a Standard which helps retailers and their suppliers to cause change at scale. This approach recognizes that there are common challenges that could be more easily overcome through a collective, place-based approach.

In the Doñana region, berry farms and groundwater usage are causing a conflict with the unique ecosystems in the National Park. A catchment assessment and active stakeholder engagement is needed as a first step in this region to work towards water stewardship. The catchment assessment will provide information on the catchment context, in line with the requirements of the Standard. The purpose of the assessment is to reduce the burden on agricultural sites by providing them with a common set of information which they and others can use to inform responses to their shared water challenges.

This consultancy project is framed by the AQUIFER project, “Innovative instruments for the integrated management of groundwater in a context of increasing scarcity of water resources” (Interreg-SUDOE V programme) which aims to capitalize, test, disseminate and transfer innovative practices for the preservation, monitoring and integrated management of aquifers.

FutureWater expertise was required for providing a novel and open-source hydrological modelling framework able to quantify spatial patterns of daily root percolation as a direct surrogate of groundwater recharge in the Campo de Cartagena Quaternary Aquifer (CC-QA). This aquifer is located at SE Spain and is one of the most important vectors of water drainage to the Mar Menor lagoon.

This task is addressed through the improvement and local calibration of the SPHY code for the Campo de Cartagena and the simulation of the water balance in the soil root zone from the 1950s until the end 2020. The SPHY-Campo de Cartagena includes a new routine able to compute irrigation inputs at the pixel level based on satellite data. Timeseries of monthly root percolation are taken as good surrogates of potential groundwater recharge and used as the main forcing input to an hydrogeological model of the Quaternary aquifer. The calibration process is performed through a sensititivity-intercomparison analysis in which model-derived outputs (irrigation and streamflow) during the calibration period are cross-checked against actual observations.

Spatial patterns of root percolation and the relative contribution of irrigation return flows to the total groundwater recharge were quantified (e.g. Figure 1) under historical and current conditions. Simulation results would show the lack of a significant temporal trend in the long-term recharge rates in the aquifer, most likely due to the the strong interannual variability observed in rainfall patterns, but also by the trade-offs resulting from the combination of climate, land use and irrigation-crop management drivers.

Figure 1. Mean Annual values of the main water balance components in Campo de Cartagena (2000-2020). RPer_ratio refers to the fraction between Root Percolation (MA.RPer) and Precipitation (MA.Pre)

FutureWater supports Fiera Comox in its due diligence process for the acquisition of a vertically integrated tree-fruit operation in North Spain. Particularly, FutureWater addresses an overall assessment of the most important water-related factors of risk that may control the current and medium-term feasibility of the fruit orchard farming system of interest. The application of FutureWater’s approach applies a multicriteria analysis and allows to qualify the levels of risk for each key factor analyzed.

FutureWater’s approach rests on: 1) the collection and analysis of data retrieved from documents, large datasets, and in-situ field inspections and stakeholder interviews, and 2) the scoring of the risks previously identified based on a final expert judgment.

Key sources of information for this risk screening included:

  • Existing documentation, reports, plans, and local legislation that may affect the access to water for irrigation
  • Existing and publicly accessible spatial and GIS data, including satellite imagery and thematic datasets available through national and regional agencies and platforms (Ebro River Basin Authority, National Infrastructure of Geospatial Data, Spanish Information System of Water)
  • Meteorological data (rainfall and temperature) from nearby weather stations
  • Groundwater level from the Spanish National Ministry of Environment.
  • Private data and documents generated by clients and stakeholders through personal and follow-up communications with farmer

Key variables analyzed and evaluated at the district and regional scales, to the extent relevant to the farm, included:

  • Water availability of surface and groundwater resources. For groundwater, a trend analysis of water levels, and first-order assessment of quality constraints and risks is included.
  • Impacts of climate change on water resources availability based on rainfall and temperature trends and projections for the region.
  • Water quality for irrigation purposes.
  • Potential conflicts due to competition for water in agriculture and other sectors of activity.

Legislative and policy-related factors that may affect the overall performance were also analyzed risk-by-risk.

Four factors of risk were analyzed: water availability, climate change, water quality, and water conflict. Each factor of risk was scored according to a risk matrix in which levels of probability of occurrence and impact severity were qualified based on data and expert judgement. For each factor, a risk matrix with three levels of overall risk were adopted: Low Risk (L), Moderate Risk (M), and High Risk (H)

Figure 1. Overall risk levels when probability of occurrence and impact severity are qualified.
Figure 2. Overview of risk assessment by factor.

In this particular project, the approach was implemented in four different settings located in the area.

Groundwater availability is critical to the Umbeluzi Catchment. Currently, there is a need for a simple tool that can asses the availability of resources in the ground.

This especially to asses the permits for groundwater extractions. It is expected that a simplified modelling approach can provide a trend analysis sufficient for the water authorities in Mozambique to perform assessments of the sub-surface water availability. Furthermore, the water availability will be assessed for current and future conditions, under different scenarios of climate change and demand increase.

Within the project, FutureWater will develop a groundwater model in WEAP, using the Strategic Model previously build for the Umbeluzi catchment. To this end a detailed data gathering activity will take place proceed by developing the model. We aim to validate and improve the model with measurements available of groundwater levels in the catchment. The model will be validated with the technical team of ARA-Sul. Ultimately, a dedicated training session for ARA-SUl will ensure that model operation is performed by local experts.

Eswatini’s development is at risk by natural drought hazards. Persistent drought is exacerbating the country’s existing challenges of food security and the ability to attain sustainable development. Therefore, FutureWater, Hydrologic, and Emanti Management joined forces to bring together technologies and complementary expertise to implement the GLOW service which includes: short-term and seasonal forecasts of water availability and demand, an alerting service when forecasted water demand is higher than water availability, and water distribution advisories to reduce impact and maximise water security for all water users.

The GLOW service will be piloted in the Maputo River and Mbuluzi River Basins where three-quarters of the population of Eswatini lives, which includes the Hawane dam that supplies water to Mbabane (Capital City of Eswatini) and which is the major water supply source for Maputo, a Delta city (1 million inhabitants) which suffers from water shortages. The main beneficiaries of this project are the Joint River Basin Authority (JBRAS-PB) and the 5 River Basin authorities, AraSul (Mozambique) and the Department of Water and Sanitation (South Africa).

The innovation of GLOW is bringing together proven and award-winning technologies of advanced earth observation, open data, high-performance computing, data-driven modelling, data science, machine learning, operations research, and stakeholder interaction. These technologies require minimum ground truth information, which makes them very scalable and applicable in poorly monitored environments throughout the world. The coherent combination of the technologies into one decision support service ensures the optimum division of water, basically distributing every drop of water to meet the demands of all interests present in large river catchments.

InfoSequia, the Drought and Early Warning System (DEWS) developed by FutureWater, was granted for being part of the Cajamar-INNOVA Incubation Programme powered by Cajamar Fundation. 

InfoSequia has been granted by Cajamar-INNOVA, a High-Tech Incubator/Accelerator focused on the Water and Agro sector. During the 6-month granted period, FutureWater’s staff is being mentored and supported by experts on topics that cover technological and business aspects. Two main objectives have been planned: 1) to increase the technical readiness level of the service by testing its reliability and suitability for the private agrobusiness and agroinsurance sectors, and 2) to improve the business strategy by identifying market opportunities and reinforcing the communication with potential stakeholders and early adopters.

Since the beginning of the Programme, several campus have been organized to deal with specialized training workshops and promote synergies among the start-ups granted. Recently, in November 2020, a campus session was also organized in parallel with the DATAGRI 2022 Forum held in El Ejido (Almería, Spain). During one-day field visit at Experimental Research & Innovation Center of Las Palmerillas-Cajamar, our colleagues Amelia Fernández and Sergio Contreras introduced InfoSequia to the participants of the event.

InfoSequia is currently part of the HERMANA system of the Cauca Valley Basin (CVC) in Colombia. Nowdays, the impact-based forecasting capabilities of the service are being tested in two pilot regions in Mozambique and Spain. These activities are also being supported by the Incubed Programme funded by the European Space Agency.

More information about the project can be found here.

Cajamar-INNOVA incubation programme participants