In this project, FutureWater used the outputs of the bias corrected "EuroCordex" RCM ensemble generated for IMWI in a previous work package. Using temperature and precipitation trends from this dataset for both past and future, an application of the Budyko methodology combined with the Modified Hargreaves approach was implemented to derive a relationship between Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and AET. This generated future projections of AET for a number of future time horizons and emissions scenarios.
The Sous-Massa basin is located in central Morocco. It represents an arid area that will likely face water resources challenges into the coming decades due to the influence of climate change and socioeconomic development. Indeed, increases in temperatures and decreases in precipitation are anticipated in the Sous-Massa region, alongside more extreme intense precipitation and drought events. It is therefore important the the impacts of climate change on water availability are better constrained to target resilience measures and better prepare for potential future water scarcity.
With the results of this project, IMWI will be able to apply the Water Accounting Plus framework to the Sous-Massa basin, helping to better constrain the likely impacts of climate change on future water availability. This project therefore helps support the targeting and prioritisation of climate resilient interventions which can be taken by the government and other members of the water sector in this area of Morocco.